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Integrated Population Model

Zwarte sterns en habitat- en populatiemodellen

Integrated Population model

A population model for the black tern Chlidonias niger in West-Europe 

Based on empiric data of breeding success and accurate number trends in The Netherlands, an integrated population model for the black tern population was constructed. Reproductive parameters from the four most important landscape types (river landscape, agricultural grasslands, peat marsh and heath land/moors) are used as model input.

conservation strategies

Highly accurate national population trend data were used to obtain the best (least square) estimate of overall adult and subadult survival (resp. 0.849 and 0.595). Estimating survival parameters in this way might be useful for threatened (bird) species, especially if catching and ringing is difficult or less desired from a conservation perspective. The model evaluates conservation strategies. For all scenarios, the model predicts a slow to rapid population increase in the Dutch black tern population after 10-20 years. Improving breeding success in agricultural grasslands habitat has the highest added value.

A population model for the black tern Chlidonias niger in West-Europe